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Some thoughts on GME

已更新:2021年2月6日

The story about Gamestop in short by Wikipedia:

In January 2021, a short squeeze of the stock of the American video game retailer GameStop (NYSE: GME) and other securities took place, causing major financial consequences for certain hedge funds and large losses for short sellers. Approximately 140 percent of GameStop's public float had been sold short, and the rush to buy shares to cover those positions as the price rose caused it to rise even further. The short squeeze was initially and primarily triggered by users of the subreddit r/wallstreetbets, an Internet forum on the social news website Reddit. At its height, on January 28, the short squeeze caused the retailer's stock price to reach a pre-market value of over US$500 per share, nearly 30 times the $17.25 valuation at the beginning of the month. The price of many other heavily shorted securities increased.




While I am surprised at how much power can be generated when individual investors all have the same faith, I bet things can't be that simple. There is always a balance between faith and profit. When the shares that cost around $17 have rocketed up to $300 each in just a few days, the confidence may turn into a timebomb that is ticking. Hence, it more likely to become a much bigger game between those financial giants lately.

On the other hand, if we admit that a short squeeze drove this case, we have to accept that the price of Gamestop exceeds way too much of its real value because a short squeeze has nothing to do with a firm's fundamentals. As a sunset company, Gamestop is suffering from both impacts from the digitalized market process and the pandemic. It was totally understandable why many hedge funds tended to short it in the first place, but when herds' willingness becomes highly identical, it can be dangerous.

Gamestop's price has dropped all the way to $57 on February 05. Right now, it seems like the situation is flipped. No one thinks GME will come back. Investors who bought at a higher price are busying cut their loss. Short-sellers are counting their money. However, there will be a turning point that short-sellers have to exit and buy back the shares that they borrowed.

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."
---Mark Twain
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